Four weeks before Sudbury goes quiet?
November 6, 2026 · David Kurt, Lake City Realty
Hey Sudbury! 👋
Five Bullet Friday is back. South of the border, the Democrats had their blue wave. Here in Sudbury, we kept our mayor and elected seven new councillors. A few of the ward results surprised me. Paul Lefebvre getting another term didn’t. I would’ve liked to see more people vote. Turnout slipped to 40.5% from about 42% last time. Still, I like having some continuity at City Hall with so much work underway downtown. U.S. midterm coverage · Sudbury election coverage
Meanwhile, in the part of my week that involves considerably more basements, I’m noticing a change. Some buyers are spending less time picturing Christmas morning in the living room or birthday parties in the backyard. They’re trying to figure out which seller will come down the furthest.
Sudbury market activity · Five weeks ending Nov. 3
Listings taken off market includes cancellations, expiries and suspensions. Of the 48 this week, 31 were expiries clustered around month-end. Five of the 48 had already come back on the market by Nov. 3.
1. Four houses. Four low offers.
A buyer came through one of our listings recently. He’d told his agent to make exceptionally low offers on four different houses and see which seller was the most desperate. I think that’s a pretty crazy way to shop for a home. He was falling in love with the deal he might get. The house could’ve been any one of the four.
I’m bringing it up because that’s part of what sellers are up against right now, especially at first-time buyer price points. From what I’m seeing, the homes getting showings are the ones priced exceptionally well. Even then, a lot of the offers coming in are well below asking. It’s a strange market when you can price a house well enough to get people through the door and still spend the week fielding offers from buyers who are mostly there to see how low you’ll go.
2. I counted 77 homes between $250,000 and $400,000.
I pulled up the Sudbury listings and counted 77 homes I’d consider livable options for a first-time buyer. That’s exceptionally high from what I’m used to seeing, and more are coming on every day. My gut says maybe one in five of those homes sells before winter sets in, if we’re lucky. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of the rest come back in spring.
3. I figure we’ve got about four weeks.
People are still out looking. But try getting someone excited about a second showing after they’ve shovelled the driveway twice and it’s still coming down. Once winter settles in here, a lot of buyers who can wait will wait. If I were selling now, I’d pull up everything a buyer could go see in my price range this Saturday. That’s the competition I’d price against.
4. I think we’ll feel the rate hike more in spring.
Buyers were already pulling back before the Bank of Canada raised its rate. I think some of that caution was already showing up in offers. The bigger question comes when spring buyers sit down and do the math. If the mortgage rates they’re offered are higher by then, what price gets them the same monthly payment they were comfortable with on a $400,000 house this fall?
At Lake City alone, we probably have 20 or more listings getting ready for spring. Add in the homes that could come back after sitting this fall and buyers may have more choice than sellers are counting on. If listings pile up and the monthly payments are higher, I can see buyers taking their time and prices staying under pressure. Bank of Canada rate decision
5. There’s a lot happening in downtown Sudbury.
Look at how much is going on. There’s the residential conversion at Scotia Tower, the work to turn part of Tom Davies Square into a cultural hub, and the new event centre under construction. And Panoramic Properties has finally torn down the old hospital on Paris Street, where there are plans for new housing. That’s a lot of development for a city that could use a lot more of it.
Will a shiny new event centre get people downtown on a Tuesday when there’s no game or concert? We’ll see. What makes me optimistic is the amount of work happening at once. We’re making room for more people to live downtown and giving them more reasons to spend time there. I think that’s good for Sudbury. Scotia Tower and the former hospital · City’s downtown plans · Event centre project
That’s it for this week, Sudbury. If you’d like the property picks, subscribe to Five Bullet Friday. This week’s email has the full story on a Garson sale that came back on the market twice, plus the Hospital Area bungalow I’d go see if I were shopping under $400,000.
David
