Weekly Wrap Up...One Last Hoorah Before the Snow Hits

What a week it’s been. From a COVID standpoint, numbers keep rising; which is to be expected after the family gatherings over Thanksgiving weekend (as much as we tried to keep the gatherings to a minimum). I was told that today sparked the first instance of COVID showing up in the high schools with a positive test at Lo-Ellen. As I type this out I am trying to keep my fingers and toes crossed that this doesn’t escalate to what we are seeing in Southern Ontario; and that kids can stay at school which can keep our local economy moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, we saw a reverse in the trend we were becoming accustomed to in past weeks with more sales than new listings for the first time in a few weeks. The other biggest takeaway is the # of multiple offers was down significantly week over week and as a % it was off a cliff.

My 5 takeaways this week are:

• What's going on this week… we have seen new listings outpace sales week-over-week, putting more homes on the market shifting things in favour of buyers. This week we saw the trend reverse. We had 59 sales with only 52 new listings. The best explanation for this is that we're seeing the last push in the market before the snow starts (or continues) to fall.
• The multiple offers were down again this week, and as a percentage, they were down BIG. There is still a load of places holding off offers but a lot of buyers aren’t taking the bait. A lot of people are ok to sit back and wait for the next opportunity, and not rush into the bidding wars we have seen in the past.
• New listings are close to the same number as they were last week, but well down compared to the average in 2020. I would chalk this up to normal levels for the fall marketplace; it has been fine the last few weeks when sales were in the mid-’40s but with this week's sales are back to almost 60 homes selling, that creates a shift from the previous 4 weeks of our trend of more listings than sales.
• A trend I have seen a lot of this week is sellers setting an offer date and holding out for multiple offers; eventually, their offer date comes and instead of getting the 5+ offers they were hoping for, they end up with one... or even none. This is a good tactic to use if you plan on underpricing your home; it's a strategy that a lot of Realtors have been using lately with their clients to get a home sold quickly with little hassle. The thought process is the market will dictate the price. With a transitioning market, you must be cautious with this strategy as it can backfire, and with a below-market price, if the offer date rolls around and they don’t have the interest we have seen this strategy backfire multiple times, more so in the last few weeks especially.
• The last point I want to make for the week is the domino effect. There are a lot of sellers who are out there shopping and if they find the right home now, only then are they going to sell their home and move forward on the place that they have fallen in love with. This is a very typical scenario for a lot of homes being listed and sold in the Sudbury market. Where things get interesting is people are buying places at the top-dollar price points and looking to sell their homes in an expedited timeframe; therefore many times underpricing their current home (using the strategy that was commented on in the point above). This works fine if it's one or two homes in a row that have this effect, but we have seen a few deals that have had a train of 4 or 5 deals in a row that are all contingent on homes being sold. There is a risk of one of the sellers being ‘bumped’ (given the notice to remove their conditions or walk away from the home they are trying to buy) or their home that they are trying to sell not selling at all. I remember in 2007 when I was first licensed getting in the market at the tail end of the chaos that was ensuing. These train of deals all relying on each other were a very common theme and I think it is the reality of a marketplace that has started to slow. The fact that we have seen this a few times and my guess is it will continue into the winter market means that selling and buying may be a bit of a more complicated scenario to be navigating, but also, an overall indication that the market continues to soften.

The reverse we saw in the market this week would make sense if what we are experiencing is the last push before we are officially in the winter market. With snow on the short-term forecast and the leaves officially gone from the trees, the winter market will be here before we know it! 

Huge thank you to everyone who came out to Kivi Park on Saturday! What a fun day of spooktacular activities and costumes!! We're doing a super awesome giveaway!!! Carve your pumpkins, take a photo and post it on either Instagram or Facebook and tag @kivipark and @lakecityrealtyltd. You will be entered into a draw to win Kivi park passes and Toys R Us gift cards! The winners will be announced on Halloween!!